The Interesting Case of Justin Verlander

MVP or not? That is the question I'm addressing today. First of all, let me say this. He is a deserving candidate, and if I had a vote, it would go to him (as long as he doesn't blow up in the final month), but I don't think he will win it. Why? Well here are a few reasons:
1) He plays in Detroit, not New York or Boston, and there are some Yankees and Red Sox having great years. It's unfortunate, but that means that ALL of the east coast writers are voting for Granderson (NYY), Gonzalez (BOS), or Ellsbury (BOS), before they even think about casting a vote for Verlander. Is it right? I don't believe so. Here's why... Thanks to my good friend Ryan Mosher for pointing these facts out: Verlander is 14-0 when pitching after a Tigers loss this season. That alone is eye-popping. He also has a WAR (wins above replacement) of 6.4 according to fangraphs.com, and of 7.7 according to baseball-reference.com. Granderson is at 6.8 on fangraphs and 5.3 on baseball-reference. Gonzalez is 6.1 on fangraphs and 6.4 on baseball-reference. Ellsbury is an 8.2 on fangraphs and a 6.8 on baseball-reference. So of the other "candidates," only two have a higher WAR according to fangraphs.com. This isn't even counting defensive WAR though, because Granderson could be replaced by literally anyone in the minor leagues. Anyways, moving on!
2) His numbers are comparable to Cy Young winners from the past. For example, in 2008, Cliff Lee went 22-3 for the Cleveland Indians. He led the league in wins, ERA (2.54), shut outs (2), home runs per 9 innings (.5), walks per 9 innings (1.4), and WAR (7.3). Lee finished 2nd in complete games (4),  ninth in strikeouts (170), and averaged 7 1/3 innings pitched per start. The Indians finished that year 81-81, so without Lee they would have been 59-78, 19 games under .500.
Verlander's numbers are similar with a few starts left to go. He's 22-5 and leading the league in ERA (2.44), strikeouts (232), and WAR (7.7). That's the triple crown for pitchers. Even though it's more common than the batting triple crown, it's still only been done 25 times in baseball history. He's tied for 4th in shutouts (2), tied for second in complete games (4), and is 7th in walks per 9 innings (2.0). He doesn't crack the top 10 in home runs allowed per 9 innings, but also averaged 7 1/3 innings pitched per start. The Tigers record without Verlander, as of right now, would be 59-57, two games above .500.
For the record, Lee won the AL Cy Young award in a landslide, but finished 12th in the MVP voting.
3) The writers' assumption that since a pitcher doesn't play every day, they can't be the most valuable player. I hate it, but that's the argument, and they're the ones who vote. For another look at an even better comparison, here's an article by Tom Robinson of The Virginia Pilot that points out if Steve Carlton didn't win the MVP in 1972, no pitcher should. If you don't have time to read the article, his numbers dwarf Verlander's (it was a different sort of baseball back then), and he ended up finishing fifth in the MVP voting. The specifics are mind-boggling.
4) The Tigers have other pitchers. As Robinson's article points out, the most any other Philly pitcher won in 1972 was four. FOUR! Detroit has Max Sherzer and Rick Porcello that have 15 and 14 wins respectively, and who knows how good Doug Fister's record would be if he wasn't playing in Seattle for the first half of the year (he's 4-1 as a Tiger, matching all 1972 Phillies not named Carlton).

Finally, this is just a tidbit about one of the stats sometimes used to judge a pitcher: the "if the Tigers didn't have Verlander they'd be a .500 team" argument. This isn't a factor that screams MVP. Sure, if you take Cliff Lee away from the 2011 Phillies they're still 35 games above .500, and if C.C. Sabathia isn't in New York they go from 33 games over .500 to 21 over. But look at some of the very legitimate 2011 NL Cy Young award candidates. Ian Kennedy is 19-4. With him the DiamondBacks are the feel-good story of the season with an 83-61 (21 games over .500) record. Without him, their record would be 64-57 (just 7 games over .500) and they'd be looking up at the San Francisco Giants. Perhaps an even better instance is Clayton Kershaw, who at 17-5 is leading the Dodgers through a horrific season. They are 70-72 overall (2 games under .500) and without him they would be 53-67 (14 games under .500). I don't think it's as useful of an argument as others do.
I love the season that Justin Verlander is having (even though he's killing my Tribe). It's so much fun to watch pitching dominate a league that was not so long ago ruled by the long ball. It excites me that we are looking at a starting pitcher and considering him for the MVP, but I can't make myself believe he'll win it.
And that, my friends, is the interesting case of Justin Verlander.

Indians' Social Suite Experience

Today was almost perfect. Summer is officially gone and fall has arrived, especially with the winds off Lake Erie blustering around Progressive Field. I got to spend a lot of quality time with my father, bonding over perhaps our strongest passion: the game of baseball. We got to the game two hours early so we could watch the Indians’ batting practice, and it was just like old times. My childhood centered around trying to catch home run balls or begging players to toss me one, and so being in the right-field bleachers with dad again was like a blast from the past. The only difference today was that we BOTH got baseballs, instead of none like before. Even though the Indians dropped 8.5 games out with the loss, it was fun to see the players during BP. We normally don’t get there soon enough to watch the home team hit, or in time to see the pitchers shagging balls in the outfield. Indians’ All-Star closer Chris Perez was hysterical. He was running all over the place, chucking sinkers at the batboy, and talking to people in the crowd. It was great.

My actual experience in the Cleveland Indians Social Suite was great. I had never been in a suite before, so this was completely new for me. Now, it was a free pair of tickets so I wasn’t expecting much, and there wasn’t any free food (unfortunately), but it was so much fun to spend that time in a great environment with my dad. It started on the ceremonial first pitches when Cleveland Browns wide receiver Greg Little and cornerback Joe Haden tossed strikes to Jason Donald. Haden was wearing a half Colt McCoy and half Grady Sizemore jersey, pretty funny. It was nice because the suite provided some warmth on the chilly evening, but the comfort didn’t last long.

No, I’m not talking about the five-run first inning the Tigers had, or even the three run second. I’m talking about the annoying suitemates that joined us. I have never felt so trapped at a baseball game before in my life. The amount of ignorance coming out of her mouth was incredible. I’m sorry, but just because someone has responded to you on Twitter before doesn’t mean your friends. And I assure you that you screaming to the umpire will not change his mind. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that Miguel Cabrera can’t even hear you telling him he sucks. Lastly, just because a guy had a bad outing (seems like every time for Fausto Carmona), it doesn’t mean he is a bum and needs demoted. Saying that you read an article that the Dolans are just trying to make the team look attractive to a buyer so they can move the team out of town isn’t original. It’s the freaking plot to Major League. Give me a break. She was soon joined by an annoying twit of a boy who kept yelling at Jhonny Peralta. Like Jhonny chose to leave Cleveland last summer when the Indians traded him? Sheesh. I blame poor parenting.

Aside from the annoying sound of a voice ringing in my ears the entire time, it was great. It was the first time I got to watch an Indians game with Tom Hamilton playing in the background. Unfortunately, that woman was talking so much nonsense that I could hardly hear him.

I did learn something about major league baseball today. I have officially declared that Miguel Cabrera has now become a “stop-what-you’re-doing-to-watch” player when he’s hitting. He is an incredible hitter, and if Tigers fans were smart they’d stop crying for Verlander to be MVP and focus on their legitimate MVP candidate.

The social suite was an incredible experience, and it is definitely something that will catch on throughout all of sports. There are plenty of stadiums and arenas that have unused suites at every game, and there are hundreds of thousands people using social media and the connection will be brilliant.

Another New Day

Last Wednesday, Jesse and I decided to do something a bit different, again. Just a week or so after we did the game re-creation, we decided to do another blast from the past and broadcast from the stands. We tossed our phone line out the window and plugged in right behind Section J of Cooley Law School Stadium. This one was my idea. Jesse asked me what I wanted to do, if anything, and I was reminded of a movie I got for Christmas. My dad got me the PBS documentary on this guy named Harry Caray, and broadcasting from the crowd was something he did a couple of times every year. It was a ton of fun! We had people sitting around us and listening in to what we were saying, there were people taking pictures with us and of us, and I got to get some in-game ice cream! It was a lot of fun and something that I hope I can do for years to come.

Tomorrow the final leg of the 2011 season begins against the Dayton Dragons, and it brings a whole new excitement level to the broadcast booth. The game is the same, but there are some key differences. For example: couple of runs in the first two innings in a regular season game can be considered a rough start for a pitcher, but if he rebounds and finishes six innings its, "no harm done and its a good outing," even if the team is losing. In the playoffs though, it's more like, "I can't believe ______ gave up so many runs and put us behind the eight-ball!" It's a whole new ballgame now!

On another note, tonight is a special night for my dad and I. Why? Because we are sitting in the Cleveland Indians Social Media Suite! I know that all the haters can say that I shouldn't be that excited to watch a series that will make the Indians an afterthought in the AL Central race, but I still have faith. In all honesty, the fact that the Tribe is still considered "in" the race in September is a bonus to a season of fun. The fact that both ESPN the Mag and Sports Illustrated picked the Indians to finish fourth in the division and here they are in second place and the only challenge to the top team in the AL Central, I am proud. I was one that was pretty sure this year would be another miserable season, but the team surprised everyone.

The next couple of years in the AL Central are going to be a blast. The Royals are up-and-coming, the Tigers are the veterans and the Indians are somewhere in between. The exciting thing to look at for each of these teams is how old each of the starters are. The Royals are all very young, everyone knows that, but the Indians and Tigers are young too. You might be surprised that I'm saying this about the arch rival Tigers, but they have a great combination of youth and experience. Justin Verlander is the clear-cut Cy Young award winner and best pitcher in the American League. Oh yeah, and he'll be 29 next year. Scherzer, Fister, and Porcello are a very solid rotation, and their ages on opening day will be 27, 28, and 23. Then they have young Jacob Turner waiting in the wings, who will be 21. There's a legitimate candidate for MVP at first base in Miguel Cabrera, who will be 29, and probably the 2011 Comeback Player of the Year at shortstop with Jhonny Peralta, 30. Those guys can be considered the "old guys" when you look at Alex Avila, 24, Austin Jackson, 24, and Delmon Young, 27. What's my hair-brained idea for the Tigers to take it to the ultimate level? I know they have some money to spend, and that second base and third base are needs for the 2012 season... but what if a top-line pitcher becomes available? One who happens to be left-handed, in the prime of his career, and used to tear up the Tigers? Yes, I'm talking about C.C. Sabathia, who can opt out of his Yankees contract after this year if he wants to. Can you imagine that rotation? Verlander, Sabathia, Fister, Scherzer, Procello or Turner. Incredible. Sorry, that rant went a little longer than expected.

Don't worry readers, I'm going to daydream about my two favorite teams (the Tribe and the Cincinnati Reds) after my post-game report from the Social Suite!