Here is the promised corresponding blog post to my earlier podcast. It will be a little heavy with statistics and numbers, but I have always been one to write with emotion (and less than proper grammar) so it should be easy to follow along.
So first things first, I want to outline the two trades I will be dissecting. The first and most obvious is the Mat Latos - Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, and Yasmani Grandal deal. At the time of this trade, I feel like I wasn't the only one out there who thought it was less-than-awesome. Yes, Latos has a lot of talent, but reports on his character made him seem like he might be slightly better than You're giving up a great catching prospect in Grandal, and a future first base stud in Alonso. Keep in mind that at the time of the trade, it seemed less than likely that Votto would be re-signed for anything long term, so the Alonso part of the deal seemed especially awful. Grandal isn't a huge loss because of the presence of Devin Mesoraco, who is turning out to look like a great catcher and future favorite player of all Reds' fans. In hindsight, now that Votto is locked up for the next 12 years, there's no place for Alonso, so the trade has worked out.
The other deal I want to look at is the Sean Marshall - Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes. I'm not 100% on board with this trade, even though the Reds have locked down Marshall until 2015 and he's looking very strong in the bullpen so far in 2012. With the unfortunate injury to Ryan Madson, this is already looking like a good trade. Plus, Wood and Sappelt have both started the year in AAA (Wood is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA, while Sappelt is currently hitting .238), so this trade just keeps getting better and better!
I may not have agreed with a lot of the Michael Lewis novel Moneyball, but I did think it brought up a terrific point about relievers. They are a dime a dozen. Who doesn't think that Homer Bailey could be a lights-out reliever with the way he can bring it? If he knows he's only going to throw one inning, two tops, he'll be living in the 97 mph range. I don't like the trade because they gave up too much in the form of players (Torreyes is a stud, and if the trade would have been Wood and Sappelt only, I'd almost be on board), and ultimately in money too. $5 million a year is a lot for a guy who only throws one inning and doesn't even do that every day. Apparently the Reds had someone win that huge Mega-Millions pot from a month ago though because their spending as of late is not-so small market.
After all that, my conclusion is simple. The Reds have a farm system that has extreme talent, and they'll be able to use it to get Major League proven talent. Billy Hamilton is as exciting of a baseball player that you could ever see. And for the people who say, "Yes, but you can't steal first," I have this to counter. In 16 games for the High-A Bakersfield Blaze, Hamilton is hitting .367 with 16 runs scored, 5 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 8 RBI, and is 14-18 in stolen bases. And for those who say, "It's only 16 games," I counter with this: In the second half last year, Hamilton posted a .318 average (93 hits in 292 AB's), scored 62 runs, and struck out thirteen less times (60 in the 2nd half to 73 in the 1st), while walking ten more times (20 in the 1st half up to 30 in the 2nd). He's starting to figure things out. The question becomes, where does he play? He has the makeup physically as a second baseman, and that position is locked up with the Brandon Phillips extension. If its decided he can play shortstop at the MLB level, then what do you do with Zack Cozart? It's because of this "surplus" at key positions (catcher, shortstop, first base) that the Reds will continue to be the team that trades for big-name guys with highly-touted prospects. Hamilton isn't the only guy in the organization that you could do this with. We've already seen Alonso and Grandal get shipped out. Who is the next to go?
I don't mind trading position player prospects for proven talent like Latos and Marshall. Pitching prospects though, are a different story. Fortunately for the ending of this blog post, the Reds haven't done that yet, so there's no material for that. Always, always, always remember when the trading of and for prospects is going on: just because they're a top ranked prospect doesn't mean they'll be the next great thing. As an Indians' fan, the CC Sabathia trade still kills me thanks to the absolutely awful professional career of Matt LaPorta, who at the time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball, and has now had two failed attempts in the majors and is the current Columbus Clippers first baseman.
If you're a Reds fan and you're not excited about the future, I officially give you permission to do so now. The combination between the talent already there, prospects on the way, and the potential for trades to improve the squad leaves Cincinnati with a great window of opportunity.
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