Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Episode 4: The Week of Misinformation
Discussing the Week of Misinformation and the impact it has on the NFL Draft, the new BCS Playoff talks, and Dwight Howard and his newest drama in Orlando. Email any comments, questions or answers to kylerludlow@me.com
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Episode 3: Saints and Bruins and Intramurals... Oh my
New Orleans' Saints funny business, UCLA's #1 recruiting class, and the love and affection of collegiate intramural sports
Monday, April 23, 2012
Episode 2: Where is the love?
On topic for today's podcast: The road-warrior Cleveland Indians, NHL hockey, and NFL/NBA player drama (yes, Metta World Peace)
Sunday, April 22, 2012
The Future of the Reds
Here is the promised corresponding blog post to my earlier podcast. It will be a little heavy with statistics and numbers, but I have always been one to write with emotion (and less than proper grammar) so it should be easy to follow along.
So first things first, I want to outline the two trades I will be dissecting. The first and most obvious is the Mat Latos - Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, and Yasmani Grandal deal. At the time of this trade, I feel like I wasn't the only one out there who thought it was less-than-awesome. Yes, Latos has a lot of talent, but reports on his character made him seem like he might be slightly better than You're giving up a great catching prospect in Grandal, and a future first base stud in Alonso. Keep in mind that at the time of the trade, it seemed less than likely that Votto would be re-signed for anything long term, so the Alonso part of the deal seemed especially awful. Grandal isn't a huge loss because of the presence of Devin Mesoraco, who is turning out to look like a great catcher and future favorite player of all Reds' fans. In hindsight, now that Votto is locked up for the next 12 years, there's no place for Alonso, so the trade has worked out.
The other deal I want to look at is the Sean Marshall - Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes. I'm not 100% on board with this trade, even though the Reds have locked down Marshall until 2015 and he's looking very strong in the bullpen so far in 2012. With the unfortunate injury to Ryan Madson, this is already looking like a good trade. Plus, Wood and Sappelt have both started the year in AAA (Wood is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA, while Sappelt is currently hitting .238), so this trade just keeps getting better and better!
I may not have agreed with a lot of the Michael Lewis novel Moneyball, but I did think it brought up a terrific point about relievers. They are a dime a dozen. Who doesn't think that Homer Bailey could be a lights-out reliever with the way he can bring it? If he knows he's only going to throw one inning, two tops, he'll be living in the 97 mph range. I don't like the trade because they gave up too much in the form of players (Torreyes is a stud, and if the trade would have been Wood and Sappelt only, I'd almost be on board), and ultimately in money too. $5 million a year is a lot for a guy who only throws one inning and doesn't even do that every day. Apparently the Reds had someone win that huge Mega-Millions pot from a month ago though because their spending as of late is not-so small market.
After all that, my conclusion is simple. The Reds have a farm system that has extreme talent, and they'll be able to use it to get Major League proven talent. Billy Hamilton is as exciting of a baseball player that you could ever see. And for the people who say, "Yes, but you can't steal first," I have this to counter. In 16 games for the High-A Bakersfield Blaze, Hamilton is hitting .367 with 16 runs scored, 5 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 8 RBI, and is 14-18 in stolen bases. And for those who say, "It's only 16 games," I counter with this: In the second half last year, Hamilton posted a .318 average (93 hits in 292 AB's), scored 62 runs, and struck out thirteen less times (60 in the 2nd half to 73 in the 1st), while walking ten more times (20 in the 1st half up to 30 in the 2nd). He's starting to figure things out. The question becomes, where does he play? He has the makeup physically as a second baseman, and that position is locked up with the Brandon Phillips extension. If its decided he can play shortstop at the MLB level, then what do you do with Zack Cozart? It's because of this "surplus" at key positions (catcher, shortstop, first base) that the Reds will continue to be the team that trades for big-name guys with highly-touted prospects. Hamilton isn't the only guy in the organization that you could do this with. We've already seen Alonso and Grandal get shipped out. Who is the next to go?
I don't mind trading position player prospects for proven talent like Latos and Marshall. Pitching prospects though, are a different story. Fortunately for the ending of this blog post, the Reds haven't done that yet, so there's no material for that. Always, always, always remember when the trading of and for prospects is going on: just because they're a top ranked prospect doesn't mean they'll be the next great thing. As an Indians' fan, the CC Sabathia trade still kills me thanks to the absolutely awful professional career of Matt LaPorta, who at the time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball, and has now had two failed attempts in the majors and is the current Columbus Clippers first baseman.
If you're a Reds fan and you're not excited about the future, I officially give you permission to do so now. The combination between the talent already there, prospects on the way, and the potential for trades to improve the squad leaves Cincinnati with a great window of opportunity.
So first things first, I want to outline the two trades I will be dissecting. The first and most obvious is the Mat Latos - Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, and Yasmani Grandal deal. At the time of this trade, I feel like I wasn't the only one out there who thought it was less-than-awesome. Yes, Latos has a lot of talent, but reports on his character made him seem like he might be slightly better than You're giving up a great catching prospect in Grandal, and a future first base stud in Alonso. Keep in mind that at the time of the trade, it seemed less than likely that Votto would be re-signed for anything long term, so the Alonso part of the deal seemed especially awful. Grandal isn't a huge loss because of the presence of Devin Mesoraco, who is turning out to look like a great catcher and future favorite player of all Reds' fans. In hindsight, now that Votto is locked up for the next 12 years, there's no place for Alonso, so the trade has worked out.
The other deal I want to look at is the Sean Marshall - Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes. I'm not 100% on board with this trade, even though the Reds have locked down Marshall until 2015 and he's looking very strong in the bullpen so far in 2012. With the unfortunate injury to Ryan Madson, this is already looking like a good trade. Plus, Wood and Sappelt have both started the year in AAA (Wood is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA, while Sappelt is currently hitting .238), so this trade just keeps getting better and better!
I may not have agreed with a lot of the Michael Lewis novel Moneyball, but I did think it brought up a terrific point about relievers. They are a dime a dozen. Who doesn't think that Homer Bailey could be a lights-out reliever with the way he can bring it? If he knows he's only going to throw one inning, two tops, he'll be living in the 97 mph range. I don't like the trade because they gave up too much in the form of players (Torreyes is a stud, and if the trade would have been Wood and Sappelt only, I'd almost be on board), and ultimately in money too. $5 million a year is a lot for a guy who only throws one inning and doesn't even do that every day. Apparently the Reds had someone win that huge Mega-Millions pot from a month ago though because their spending as of late is not-so small market.
After all that, my conclusion is simple. The Reds have a farm system that has extreme talent, and they'll be able to use it to get Major League proven talent. Billy Hamilton is as exciting of a baseball player that you could ever see. And for the people who say, "Yes, but you can't steal first," I have this to counter. In 16 games for the High-A Bakersfield Blaze, Hamilton is hitting .367 with 16 runs scored, 5 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 8 RBI, and is 14-18 in stolen bases. And for those who say, "It's only 16 games," I counter with this: In the second half last year, Hamilton posted a .318 average (93 hits in 292 AB's), scored 62 runs, and struck out thirteen less times (60 in the 2nd half to 73 in the 1st), while walking ten more times (20 in the 1st half up to 30 in the 2nd). He's starting to figure things out. The question becomes, where does he play? He has the makeup physically as a second baseman, and that position is locked up with the Brandon Phillips extension. If its decided he can play shortstop at the MLB level, then what do you do with Zack Cozart? It's because of this "surplus" at key positions (catcher, shortstop, first base) that the Reds will continue to be the team that trades for big-name guys with highly-touted prospects. Hamilton isn't the only guy in the organization that you could do this with. We've already seen Alonso and Grandal get shipped out. Who is the next to go?
I don't mind trading position player prospects for proven talent like Latos and Marshall. Pitching prospects though, are a different story. Fortunately for the ending of this blog post, the Reds haven't done that yet, so there's no material for that. Always, always, always remember when the trading of and for prospects is going on: just because they're a top ranked prospect doesn't mean they'll be the next great thing. As an Indians' fan, the CC Sabathia trade still kills me thanks to the absolutely awful professional career of Matt LaPorta, who at the time was the #1 prospect in all of baseball, and has now had two failed attempts in the majors and is the current Columbus Clippers first baseman.
If you're a Reds fan and you're not excited about the future, I officially give you permission to do so now. The combination between the talent already there, prospects on the way, and the potential for trades to improve the squad leaves Cincinnati with a great window of opportunity.
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Chill out people...
Hearing people complain about the Cincinnati Reds' season is making me sick. It has been thirteen games. The Reds are 5-8. You know what that means? NOTHING. The 2010 NL Central Champion Reds were also 5-8. After thirteen games last year, the World Series Champion Cardinals were 6-7. I know that every game counts, but we've seen it the last two years that whoever is hot at the end of the season is the team that makes the splash ('11 Cardinals, '10 Giants), and what's really more important? You can complain about Latos, or Dusty, or Willie Harris, that's all legitimate. But with the Reds as my second-favorite team and my general fandom of all of baseball, it disgusts me to see the comments like, "I thought the Reds were supposed to be good this year," and "Looks like the Reds wasted a lot of money and talent on this team," on Twitter and Facebook by people who consider themselves "fans" of the Cincinnati Reds. Must be on the bandwagon because they don't understand baseball.
Want to look at another example? How about my Cleveland Indians. Last year they were a MAJOR LEAGUE LEADING 21-9 after thirty games, and had a 4.5 game lead over the Kansas City Royals. At the same point in time, the Detroit Tigers were 13-17 and 8 games out of first place. The Tigers went to the ALCS, won the division by like 15 games, and the Indians finished with a glamorous 80-82 record. The Reds have an EXTREMELY talented team; things will absolutely turn around.
I briefly mentioned Mat Latos and would also like to dish out some facts on him. For those of you who are worried that this was a raw deal for the Reds, keep in mind the following facts:
(1) Latos' career record in April is 1-8 **including this year** - His overall career record is now 27-31 (2) His career ERA is 3.54 (including an 8.22 mark in 2012)
(3) In 2010, the 14-10, 2.92 ERA year (and the year Reds' fans got excited about) he was 1-4 to start the year and 0-5 to finish it.
There are bigger problems than Mat Latos on this team. To make a deep run into the playoffs and make a serious push for the World Series, you have to have a deep bench. The Reds don't have that. Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick in the outfield is working right now, and hopefully it continues... but if Willie Harris keeps getting all the playing time he has, that is a recipe for disaster. There's going to need to be someone to play third base too if you want Scott Rolen for the playoffs. It's completely unrealistic to expect him to play every game anymore. Having a deep and reliable bench to get you through the regular season is one thing, and it becomes the most important thing when you're making a double-switch in the 8th inning against the Phillies in the NLCS... Right now the Reds have to choose between Harris and Wilson Valdez. (I just mentally pictured all 45 of the readers of this column shuddering).
If Cincinnati is still 3 games under .500 and trailing by 4 games at the end of May we can revisit all of these things and try to figure out how to right the ship. For now just remember, it's April, chill out people.
Want to look at another example? How about my Cleveland Indians. Last year they were a MAJOR LEAGUE LEADING 21-9 after thirty games, and had a 4.5 game lead over the Kansas City Royals. At the same point in time, the Detroit Tigers were 13-17 and 8 games out of first place. The Tigers went to the ALCS, won the division by like 15 games, and the Indians finished with a glamorous 80-82 record. The Reds have an EXTREMELY talented team; things will absolutely turn around.
I briefly mentioned Mat Latos and would also like to dish out some facts on him. For those of you who are worried that this was a raw deal for the Reds, keep in mind the following facts:
(1) Latos' career record in April is 1-8 **including this year** - His overall career record is now 27-31 (2) His career ERA is 3.54 (including an 8.22 mark in 2012)
(3) In 2010, the 14-10, 2.92 ERA year (and the year Reds' fans got excited about) he was 1-4 to start the year and 0-5 to finish it.
There are bigger problems than Mat Latos on this team. To make a deep run into the playoffs and make a serious push for the World Series, you have to have a deep bench. The Reds don't have that. Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick in the outfield is working right now, and hopefully it continues... but if Willie Harris keeps getting all the playing time he has, that is a recipe for disaster. There's going to need to be someone to play third base too if you want Scott Rolen for the playoffs. It's completely unrealistic to expect him to play every game anymore. Having a deep and reliable bench to get you through the regular season is one thing, and it becomes the most important thing when you're making a double-switch in the 8th inning against the Phillies in the NLCS... Right now the Reds have to choose between Harris and Wilson Valdez. (I just mentally pictured all 45 of the readers of this column shuddering).
If Cincinnati is still 3 games under .500 and trailing by 4 games at the end of May we can revisit all of these things and try to figure out how to right the ship. For now just remember, it's April, chill out people.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Lin vs. Tebow
I know that there are plenty of articles talking about the meteoric rise of Jeremy Lin, and I vowed that I would not join that train, yet here I am. I heard this morning, once again, a comparison of Jeremy Lin and Tim Tebow, and I have a tremendously difficult time making sense of it. Don't get me wrong, I think both are amazing stories, tremendous athletes, wonderful advocates of the Christian faith for their respective sports, and both are exceeding expectations, but think about this:
Jeremy Lin was offered "spots" on teams out of high school. Stanford, UCLA, and Cal offered positions on their teams, which is commonly referred to as a "preferred walk on," and Harvard and Brown offered him a position as well. Ivy League teams don't offer athletic scholarships.
Tim Tebow had to decide between every school in the country. He reportedly had scholarship offers from every major school in the SEC (Florida, Alabama, LSU) and was considered the top quarterback recruit in the nation.
Jeremy Lin didn't make any splashes until his sophomore year, when he made 2nd Team All-Ivy League. His junior year he was the only NCAA DI player in the top ten in their league in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, blocked shots, field goal, free throw, and three-point percentage, but no one considered him a future NBA star. When he repeated the feat his senior year, no NBA franchise salivated over it. He was the first player in Ivy League history to finish with over 1,450 points, 450 rebounds, 400 assists, and 200 steals. He went undrafted.
Tim Tebow saw limited time as a freshman as well (hey there's a similarity), but did end up with the second-most rushing yards for Florida. He had some key touchdowns in key games (in the National Championship against Ohio State for instance), but people still questioned about him being named starter in 2007. He then went on to win the Heisman Trophy and Davey O'Brien Award (best QB) as a sophomore, broke the school rushing TD record (previously held by Emmitt Smith), won a second national championship and the Maxwell Award as a junior, and then iced the cake with his record breaking 51st rushing touchdown (previously held by Georgia's Hershel Walker) as a senior. Oh let's not forget to mention he had 5 NCAA, 14 SEC and 28 Florida Gator statistical records by the time he graduated as well. "Experts" questioned his draft stock, and he was taken 25th overall by the Denver Broncos.
Jeremy Lin decided to sign with his hometown Golden State Warriors, who notoriously cut Lin to make room for a player (DeAndre Jordan) that never came. He made the opening day roster for the 2010-11 season and was placed on the inactive list. He didn't get much playing time because Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis are the stars, and honestly, who would you rather have had the ball? Lin made his NBA debut on "Asian Heritage Night" for the Warriors (seriously) against the Los Angeles Clippers. Lin got the 12th man treatment that you see at a lot of high schools: at the end of a game where the outcome was decided, fans started chanting for Lin to enter the game. He was then released, signed by Houston, and released again. He was signed by a guard-depleted Knicks team, bounced around between them and the D-League, and then Baron Davis suffered another injury setback, forcing the Knicks to play this little-known Ivy Leaguer. He's now scored 146 points and dished out 57 assists in six starts, and "has a role in All-Star Weekend," whatever that means.
Tim Tebow DID have a rough start to his career. I'm not going to try and paint the picture that he had his road paved for him by all his aforementioned success. He was a backup for the majority of his rookie season, but did see some marginal success. He was named the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week twice, threw for 654 yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and also rushed for 227 yards and six touchdowns. Tebow was being criticized from all sorts of media personalities, from former players and coaches, to so-called "experts," to writers (PTI and Around the Horn guys/gals). Everyone had something to say about Tebow. John Fox named him the starter against the Miami Dolphins after the Broncos started the season 1-5, and the legend was born.
Another point that was brought to my attention by Dan Patrick yesterday is that this doesn't happen in the NBA. The NFL just had a tremendous story with Arian Foster that is a more rags-to-riches story than Tebow, and in baseball you have it all the time thanks to the high population of Latin American players. The NBA doesn't have surprises like that. Sure, there are players who grew up with nothing and found their passion and way out in basketball, but those players are top recruits and draft picks once high school hits.
Oh yeah, and this just came to mind:
Jeremy Lin earns $800,000
Tim Tebow earns a base salary of $11.25 million, and can make as much $33 million through performance-based incentives.
Both men have faced adversity to get to the point that they are at now. People are still questioning whether Tebow can start in the NFL, and no one thinks Jeremy Lin can be good once Carmelo Anthony returns to the Knicks. There stories have similarities, but Jeremy Lin-like stories don't come along often. Let's all just sit back and enjoy it.
Jeremy Lin was offered "spots" on teams out of high school. Stanford, UCLA, and Cal offered positions on their teams, which is commonly referred to as a "preferred walk on," and Harvard and Brown offered him a position as well. Ivy League teams don't offer athletic scholarships.
Tim Tebow had to decide between every school in the country. He reportedly had scholarship offers from every major school in the SEC (Florida, Alabama, LSU) and was considered the top quarterback recruit in the nation.
Jeremy Lin didn't make any splashes until his sophomore year, when he made 2nd Team All-Ivy League. His junior year he was the only NCAA DI player in the top ten in their league in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, blocked shots, field goal, free throw, and three-point percentage, but no one considered him a future NBA star. When he repeated the feat his senior year, no NBA franchise salivated over it. He was the first player in Ivy League history to finish with over 1,450 points, 450 rebounds, 400 assists, and 200 steals. He went undrafted.
Tim Tebow saw limited time as a freshman as well (hey there's a similarity), but did end up with the second-most rushing yards for Florida. He had some key touchdowns in key games (in the National Championship against Ohio State for instance), but people still questioned about him being named starter in 2007. He then went on to win the Heisman Trophy and Davey O'Brien Award (best QB) as a sophomore, broke the school rushing TD record (previously held by Emmitt Smith), won a second national championship and the Maxwell Award as a junior, and then iced the cake with his record breaking 51st rushing touchdown (previously held by Georgia's Hershel Walker) as a senior. Oh let's not forget to mention he had 5 NCAA, 14 SEC and 28 Florida Gator statistical records by the time he graduated as well. "Experts" questioned his draft stock, and he was taken 25th overall by the Denver Broncos.
Jeremy Lin decided to sign with his hometown Golden State Warriors, who notoriously cut Lin to make room for a player (DeAndre Jordan) that never came. He made the opening day roster for the 2010-11 season and was placed on the inactive list. He didn't get much playing time because Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis are the stars, and honestly, who would you rather have had the ball? Lin made his NBA debut on "Asian Heritage Night" for the Warriors (seriously) against the Los Angeles Clippers. Lin got the 12th man treatment that you see at a lot of high schools: at the end of a game where the outcome was decided, fans started chanting for Lin to enter the game. He was then released, signed by Houston, and released again. He was signed by a guard-depleted Knicks team, bounced around between them and the D-League, and then Baron Davis suffered another injury setback, forcing the Knicks to play this little-known Ivy Leaguer. He's now scored 146 points and dished out 57 assists in six starts, and "has a role in All-Star Weekend," whatever that means.
Tim Tebow DID have a rough start to his career. I'm not going to try and paint the picture that he had his road paved for him by all his aforementioned success. He was a backup for the majority of his rookie season, but did see some marginal success. He was named the Pepsi NFL Rookie of the Week twice, threw for 654 yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, and also rushed for 227 yards and six touchdowns. Tebow was being criticized from all sorts of media personalities, from former players and coaches, to so-called "experts," to writers (PTI and Around the Horn guys/gals). Everyone had something to say about Tebow. John Fox named him the starter against the Miami Dolphins after the Broncos started the season 1-5, and the legend was born.
Another point that was brought to my attention by Dan Patrick yesterday is that this doesn't happen in the NBA. The NFL just had a tremendous story with Arian Foster that is a more rags-to-riches story than Tebow, and in baseball you have it all the time thanks to the high population of Latin American players. The NBA doesn't have surprises like that. Sure, there are players who grew up with nothing and found their passion and way out in basketball, but those players are top recruits and draft picks once high school hits.
Oh yeah, and this just came to mind:
Jeremy Lin earns $800,000
Tim Tebow earns a base salary of $11.25 million, and can make as much $33 million through performance-based incentives.
Both men have faced adversity to get to the point that they are at now. People are still questioning whether Tebow can start in the NFL, and no one thinks Jeremy Lin can be good once Carmelo Anthony returns to the Knicks. There stories have similarities, but Jeremy Lin-like stories don't come along often. Let's all just sit back and enjoy it.
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